
US Vice-President JD Vance has sent a personal letter to Iran's security council secretary, Mohsen Rezaei, offering to restart diplomacy: nuclear commitments first, then the Strait of Hormuz reopened within seven days in return for sanctions relief. Iran resists upfront, irreversible concessions, while US plans for a renewed attack on previously off-limits targets and Iranian plans to hit Gulf infrastructure remain in place. If talks fail, a wider regional war involving Israel, the Gulf states and the United States becomes far more likely.