US reportedly readies short Iran campaign after midterms as oil tops $116

Brent crude rose above $116.50 after a Wall Street Journal report that the Trump administration is preparing a brief military campaign against Iran after the midterm elections. A former US intelligence official cited by Jefferies puts escalation at about 55% against 25% for a diplomatic exit, with a third carrier group and roughly 3,000 targets reportedly prepared. Iran has rebuilt its drone and missile stocks, so a renewed strike points less to a settlement than to a prolonged regional conflict involving Israel, Gulf states and Iranian proxies.