Hormuz Shipping Disruption Keeps Global Supply Chains Near COVID-Era Stress

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely disrupted even as Iran and Oman reportedly near a deal to reopen it, with Brent crude near $85 a barrel. UBS data show its Global Supply Chain Stress Index, though easing slightly from June, still stands nearly a full standard deviation above pre-conflict levels, with oil shipping volumes only half-recovered and freight costs rising again. The lingering economic fallout from the Israel-Iran conflict shows how a regional confrontation near the Persian Gulf can strain global trade and energy flows for months after fighting eases, illustrating how localized conflict can cascade into pressure for coordinated international economic response.